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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/30/2008 3:00:50 PM
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tafkam
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Well, it appears Obama did get a little bump coming out of the convention, but it's surprisingly small.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
I would have thought that he would be enjoying a comfortable spread by now.
Of course, McCain's VP pick has yet to figure into the polling equations...I'd say in a week or two we'll be getting our first solid glimpses of how this thing is going to play out....if Obama is enjoying any sort of lead that is outside the margin of error, my guess is that we'll be waking up on Nov 5th to President-elect Barack Hussein Obama....
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"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.' - Ronald Reagan
Tafkam
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/30/2008 3:12:37 PM
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CherishedbyGod
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But, see he still is not even hitting 50% even after the convention! That is extremely troubling for them.
Considering all things, this should be a democratic landslide so, I imagine they are running very scared right now, especially after Mrs. Palin has been chosen....
Thanks for showing those...
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~I would love for you to come and learn about Jesus of Nazareth with me in the Writer's Roundtable Folder~
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/30/2008 3:13:20 PM
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todd_t
Posts: 1587
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From: The North Woods
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quote:
Well, it appears Obama did get a little bump coming out of the convention, but it's surprisingly small.
Actually, Gallup's daily tracker (Aug 28-29) has Obama up by 8 points today (49-41).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109900/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Lead-49-41.aspx
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In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/30/2008 3:23:51 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
ORIGINAL: todd_t
quote:
Well, it appears Obama did get a little bump coming out of the convention, but it's surprisingly small.
Actually, Gallup's daily tracker (Aug 28-29) has Obama up by 8 points today (49-41).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109900/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Lead-49-41.aspx
Yeah, but Rasmussen only has him up by 4 and the average is only 3.9. Only Gallup gives him such a big bump.
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Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/30/2008 3:34:36 PM
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colliefan
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From: Raleigh, NC
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It will ne interesting to see if next weeks - if it held next week - convention will to for McCain. Wonder if Barry's lack of bounce has more to do with Obama-fatigue?
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/30/2008 3:44:46 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
ORIGINAL: colliefan
It will ne interesting to see if next weeks - if it held next week - convention will to for McCain. Wonder if Barry's lack of bounce has more to do with Obama-fatigue?
quote:
nder if Barry's lack of bounce has more to do with Obama-fatigue?
I think with the combination of NObama-fatique, the infusion of spirit with McCain's choice of Palin, and the Republican Convention next week McCain will probably come out back on top and this time I would expect him to lead by 3 or 4 points.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/31/2008 10:06:12 AM
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huangshan
Posts: 778
Joined: 8/6/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: CherishedbyGod
He has received no post-convention bump up in the polls. In fact, with everything pointing to the fact that this election should be a Democratic romp, it is, instead a near dead heat.
Obama, are you Obummered?
Eh.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/08/30/today-s-polls-when-bounces-collide.aspx
quote:
The only two polls out today are the national trackers, and each of them show the race holding steady. Barack Obama maintains an 8-point lead in the Gallup Tracker, and a 4-point lead in Rasmussen's tracking poll.
Today's tracking polls removed interviews from Tuesday -- when voters had had the chance to listen to Michelle Obama's speech from the DNC but little else -- and replaced them with interviews from Friday, when voters could react to the entirety of the DNC, including Barack Obama's speech, but could also react to the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate. Our model adjusts for the convention bounce; it does not attempt to correct for the VP bounce, even though there often is one (Joe Biden was an exception).
Since Obama's speech was well received by voters, one can probably assume that his numbers would be slightly higher had John McCain not announced his VP yesterday. On the other hand, the notion that something tangible was gained by limiting Obama's bounce is silly. The convention bounce almost always fades by itself (it would more aptly be described as a convention 'bubble'). Stopping a bounce is a strategy designed to improve one's standing in the FiveThirtyEight.com polling averages for a day or two, rather than one's chances of actually winning the election.
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/31/2008 2:09:50 PM
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CherishedbyGod
Posts: 2342
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quote:
ORIGINAL: huangshan
quote:
ORIGINAL: CherishedbyGod
He has received no post-convention bump up in the polls. In fact, with everything pointing to the fact that this election should be a Democratic romp, it is, instead a near dead heat.
Obama, are you Obummered?
Eh.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/08/30/today-s-polls-when-bounces-collide.aspx
quote:
The only two polls out today are the national trackers, and each of them show the race holding steady. Barack Obama maintains an 8-point lead in the Gallup Tracker, and a 4-point lead in Rasmussen's tracking poll.
Today's tracking polls removed interviews from Tuesday -- when voters had had the chance to listen to Michelle Obama's speech from the DNC but little else -- and replaced them with interviews from Friday, when voters could react to the entirety of the DNC, including Barack Obama's speech, but could also react to the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate. Our model adjusts for the convention bounce; it does not attempt to correct for the VP bounce, even though there often is one (Joe Biden was an exception).
Since Obama's speech was well received by voters, one can probably assume that his numbers would be slightly higher had John McCain not announced his VP yesterday. On the other hand, the notion that something tangible was gained by limiting Obama's bounce is silly. The convention bounce almost always fades by itself (it would more aptly be described as a convention 'bubble'). Stopping a bounce is a strategy designed to improve one's standing in the FiveThirtyEight.com polling averages for a day or two, rather than one's chances of actually winning the election.
Again...He cannot even hit 50%, even after the convention, in an election year that should be a Democratic romp. That is very bad news for OBummer.
The Democrats, believe me are running pretty scared right now.....
_____________________________
~I would love for you to come and learn about Jesus of Nazareth with me in the Writer's Roundtable Folder~
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/31/2008 2:18:10 PM
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huangshan
Posts: 778
Joined: 8/6/2008
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quote:
ORIGINAL: CherishedbyGod
Again...He cannot even hit 50%, even after the convention, in an election year that should be a Democratic romp. That is very bad news for OBummer.
The Democrats, believe me are running pretty scared right now.....
Obama is winning in the polls, and has been winning in the polls, so Democrats should be scared now?
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/31/2008 2:35:56 PM
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CherishedbyGod
Posts: 2342
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quote:
ORIGINAL: huangshan
quote:
ORIGINAL: CherishedbyGod
Again...He cannot even hit 50%, even after the convention, in an election year that should be a Democratic romp. That is very bad news for OBummer.
The Democrats, believe me are running pretty scared right now.....
Obama is winning in the polls, and has been winning in the polls, so Democrats should be scared now?
You had better believe they are scared.....
_____________________________
~I would love for you to come and learn about Jesus of Nazareth with me in the Writer's Roundtable Folder~
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RE: Where is the Bump, Obama? - 8/31/2008 3:04:07 PM
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inthysite
Posts: 770
Joined: 2/12/2008
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I thought this was a very telling point of the article mentioned.
it does not attempt to correct for the VP bounce, even though there often is one (Joe Biden was an exception).
Wonder why Biden didn't give NObama any help in the polls.
Also, if you check the polls Palin is more favorable than Biden. From the looks of things it is NObama who made a bad choice in VP.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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