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RE: Stock market - 9/25/2008 3:18:22 AM
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prophet
Posts: 691
Joined: 4/19/2005
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quote:
ORIGINAL: mikeman2
I dare say that if this proposed bail out falls through the market will crash pretty quickly, therefore, I would caution everyone about investing right now. I would say the wise thing to do is to be in cash with at least 20% of your portfolio. In addition, if you have debt pay it off first before investing.
Just my 2 cents for what it is worth. 
Wise words! i will add: even if the bail out goes through, it will be a plaster on a VERY large crack....mkt will go up short term and find its value lower at maybe 7000 points
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RE: Stock market - 9/25/2008 9:13:24 AM
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kernsfamily
Posts: 1434
Joined: 4/26/2006
From: Dallas (originally Detroit)
Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: mikeman2
I dare say that if this proposed bail out falls through the market will crash pretty quickly, therefore, I would caution everyone about investing right now. I would say the wise thing to do is to be in cash with at least 20% of your portfolio. In addition, if you have debt pay it off first before investing.
Just my 2 cents for what it is worth.
Paying off debt before investing is ALWAYS a good idea....in good times...and bad...
well, if the market plummets....and crashes.....then, that means BARGAIN HUNTING....and, getting more shares and more "bang for the buck"....
long term "dollar cost averaging" investing..in good performing mutual funds.... is certainly NOT something to stop doing just because the market drops....
this cycle will end, and the market will up eventually....it always has.....always will
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Proud dad of 3 great girls....Erin, Emilie and Elise
Blessed to have all of them in a "totally awesome" public elementary school!
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RE: Stock market - 9/30/2008 9:18:01 PM
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Abbreviated
Posts: 2101
Joined: 4/12/2005
From: Kansas
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Anybody buying Lehmann Bro. stock or Fanny May or Freddie Mac stock ?
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Buried In Legos...
Bologna Donuts
Jackie
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RE: Stock market - 10/6/2008 11:44:58 AM
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GroupW
Posts: 2863
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Abbreviated
Anybody buying Lehmann Bro. stock or Fanny May or Freddie Mac stock ?
Reminds me of an old Smothers Brothers skit on TV.
Dick Smothers asks his less intellectually gifted little brother Tommy if all his friends went and jumped off a cliff, would Tommy just go along and jump off the cliff as well.
Tommy answers, "Well, not AGAIN!"
BT
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Stock market - 10/7/2008 12:44:53 PM
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BJinWA
Posts: 90
Joined: 5/9/2007
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i am worrying less and less about the stock market.........you see i have recently made solid plans for my retirement.......
how does that go?? OH YES-----Welcome to Walmart! i'm practicing enthusiasm as well as pushing the cart with my left hand!!!! 
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RE: Stock market - 10/9/2008 6:17:14 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2863
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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You want fries with your waiting list?
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Stock market - 10/10/2008 2:51:09 PM
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Abbreviated
Posts: 2101
Joined: 4/12/2005
From: Kansas
Status: offline
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Exxon & GE might be good deals now.
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Buried In Legos...
Bologna Donuts
Jackie
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RE: Stock market - 10/10/2008 8:09:35 PM
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Ps103
Posts: 11745
Joined: 4/16/2005
From: Here, now
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Yeah...but check out PBT, too, Jackie. Sweeter dividend.
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RE: Stock market - 10/10/2008 8:28:41 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2007
Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
Yeah...but check out PBT, too, Jackie. Sweeter dividend.
I think it really depends on what you're looking for. In general, An oil major is going to be a bit less correlated to the price of oil than an oil trust. It's going to depend a bit more on the state of the economy. If it looks like oil demand is going down, the oil companies will suffer. Supply might be going down faster than demand, but oil majors have a lot of value tied up in refineries and the supply chain- not just in drilling oil.
A few other things to note:
-In general, royalty trusts pay dividends that are in line with the price of oil. The next quarter will probably have average oil prices down about 40%, so that means the dividend will be down significantly next quarter.
-Dividends aren't everything, but there are much better dividend yields in European oil majors right now than American ones.
-Dividends paid by oil majors are taxed like long-term capital gains; dividends paid by royalty trusts are taxed as ordinary income.
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RE: Stock market - 11/5/2008 4:16:07 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2007
Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
My stocks are sooo not happy today 
And I had gotten to the point where I was only 2.5% down overall.
This is just the beginning. We're going to be testing the DJIA=7800-8000 bottom a few times before we really start to recover. This is not going to be a quick and easy recession, and this will not be a quick and painless bottom.
I've started shopping a bit, but I don't think I'll be making any purchases until we're at about 8500-8700.
I could be totally wrong here; this isn't a time to be selling your stock (in fact, the market looks pretty cheap from a historical perspective), but it may be time to maybe wait for a bit of a better deal.
The "recovery" of the past two weeks has been just a little too fast, too far.
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RE: Stock market - 11/6/2008 12:52:53 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2863
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
Yeah, I know. I was just enjoying seeing green on the screen for a change, and now it's back to red 
What does green look like? I think I forgot.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Stock market - 11/6/2008 1:05:44 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2863
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
Iirc, it was the same color as the trees used to be, but now they are red, too.
I was going to make an association here with the color brown as well, but I figured that might be going a bit too far on the terms of service.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Stock market - 11/6/2008 2:10:51 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2007
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
Yeah, I know. I was just enjoying seeing green on the screen for a change, and now it's back to red
What does green look like? I think I forgot.
Don't worry, every point we go down is an extra point we can go back up, and at DJIA=8700, the market looks cheap if you have a long-term perspective.
Me? Last week, the options markets looked a little complacent, so I bought some disaster (10-15% out-of-the-money) puts on about 25% of my portfolio. With a P/E right now of about 10, the S&P 500 hasn't been this cheap since inflation was 10%.
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RE: Stock market - 11/6/2008 4:57:48 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2007
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
I still have two limit orders in from a while back, but those two stocks can't seemt ohit my marks
Tell me about it. I'm crossing my fingers that one of the most boring Pipeline MLPs in the market hits a distribution yield of 11.5%- we're getting awfully close, but it's not dropping as fast as the rest of the market.
The reason I like Pipeline Master Limited Partnerships so much- particularly the interstate natural gas pipelines- is that they offer a lot of fundamental safety as an industry. If people stop using natural gas to heat their homes and generate electricity in the next few years, we have much bigger problems than money.
If it misses that 11.5% yield, I'll probably be kicking myself in 10 years when MLP's are yielding 5%, but I'm doing my best to stay disciplined. The stock could be yielding 14% by the time we're done, and I don't think that risk is worth less than an 11.5% dividend.
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RE: Stock market - 11/11/2008 12:02:37 PM
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MyGodYourGod
Posts: 28
Joined: 4/7/2008
Status: offline
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Anybody option trading? Anybody making money BECAUSE the market is declining? My dad is DOUBLING his money every week because of the market decline. He is ELATED!!
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RE: Stock market - 11/11/2008 12:16:26 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2007
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: MyGodYourGod
Anybody option trading? Anybody making money BECAUSE the market is declining? My dad is DOUBLING his money every week because of the market decline. He is ELATED!!
I am saving money on option trading- not making money.
Instead of losing 10% over the past week, I've only lost 8%; 15% of my investments are covered by puts.
For those who don't know, puts are sort of like insurance on stock. It gives you the right (but not the obligation) to sell a stock at a certain price. So if you buy a put with an exercise price of $20/share when the stock is at $21 and the stock goes to $15, you save yourself $5 in losses. Likewise, if the stock goes to $25/share, you don't lose anything- just the premium you pay for the option to sell.
Puts are very expensive, especially when you're not using them as hedges. Puts get more expensive when the market is bouncing around a whole lot more, and they get cheap when the market is boring.
In a market like this, I wait for things to calm down a bit, and then I start buying puts at about 10-15% below the current stock price one or two months out on maybe 15-20% of my portfolio. Because things are calmer, I can pay less, and because I'm not hedging all of my portfolio (just the parts where I think puts look cheap), I'm not spending all that much.
< Message edited by blessedinnyc -- 11/11/2008 3:48:18 PM >
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RE: Stock market - 11/11/2008 10:43:16 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2863
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: MyGodYourGod
Anybody option trading? Anybody making money BECAUSE the market is declining? My dad is DOUBLING his money every week because of the market decline. He is ELATED!!
Hopefully your dad knows when to take his money off the table. I would have to assume that volatility should be decreasing fairly soon. That means, all other things equal, to a decline in options values.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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Wish they would go back up to where I bought them so I could dump the stock 