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I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:16:17 PM
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Leslie_JnJs_mom
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I was watching the news today and they were talking about how the stock market lost even more today. They said that every gain the market has made in the 1990's is now gone. I am wondering if this bail out is even going to work?
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:26:08 PM
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ElmerFishpaw
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From what I read on CNBC, it seems the thing to really watch isn't the Dow Jones (stock market in general) but the loosening of credit. If GroupW is reading this thread, what index should someone look at to see if credit is getting looser, the TED index?
_____________________________
"Aurora Borealis is Latin for flying saucer headlights"
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:35:09 PM
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GroupW
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Hey Elmer.
There would be a couple of things to look at - the TED spread would be right up there at the top of the list. Also the VIX, which is a measure of market volatility.
Right now, though, my favorite indicator is credit default swap spreads. This reflects what financial institutions are charging each other to insure particular credit exposures. Those, however, aren't exchange-traded and the information isn't always widely available - at least not to us mere mortals.
Personally, I'm watching the CMBX index series, particularly the AAA measures. The interesting thing right now is the gap between the spreads at which AAA CMBS bonds trade as derivatives vs. the spreads at which the actual bonds are trading. This gap, or "the basis", is at levels that are astronomically wide, indicating that investors just can't gather the liquidity to purchase the cash instruments and need to take the risk synthetically if they want to buy.
(Today, super-senior CMBS traded around 5% over treasuries. The associated CMBX contract was being sold around 2.65% over treasuries. That's a huge gap. Normally the gap between those two is under 0.25%
That tells me that there just aren't any cash buyers right now.
BT
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:36:47 PM
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GroupW
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From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JnJs_mom
I was watching the news today and they were talking about how the stock market lost even more today. They said that every gain the market has made in the 1990's is now gone. I am wondering if this bail out is even going to work?
Actually, today's loss took us back to sometime in 2004.
It's bad, but not as bad as being back in the 1990's.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:37:39 PM
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galadriel2
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I have no idea of the bailout will work, but I would say that I hope it doesn't. America needs to be weened from her materialism and gluttony. The economy going south is a good way to do it.
God bless,
Galadriel2
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:46:50 PM
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ElmerFishpaw
Posts: 141
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
Hey Elmer.
There would be a couple of things to look at - the TED spread would be right up there at the top of the list. Also the VIX, which is a measure of market volatility.
Right now, though, my favorite indicator is credit default swap spreads. This reflects what financial institutions are charging each other to insure particular credit exposures. Those, however, aren't exchange-traded and the information isn't always widely available - at least not to us mere mortals.
Personally, I'm watching the CMBX index series, particularly the AAA measures. The interesting thing right now is the gap between the spreads at which AAA CMBS bonds trade as derivatives vs. the spreads at which the actual bonds are trading. This gap, or "the basis", is at levels that are astronomically wide, indicating that investors just can't gather the liquidity to purchase the cash instruments and need to take the risk synthetically if they want to buy.
(Today, super-senior CMBS traded around 5% over treasuries. The associated CMBX contract was being sold around 2.65% over treasuries. That's a huge gap. Normally the gap between those two is under 0.25%
That tells me that there just aren't any cash buyers right now.
BT
Thank you GroupW! I know CNBC carries the TED index, I'll look to see if the AAA measures are there. I only found out what a TED spread was a few days ago, as I'm using this current big belch in the economy to educate myself about the financial system, what would the TED be on a average decent but not booming economy day?
I kinda like stocks cheap, bought some more Magellan fund today!
_____________________________
"Aurora Borealis is Latin for flying saucer headlights"
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:48:30 PM
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LoyalGypsy
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JnJs_mom
I was watching the news today and they were talking about how the stock market lost even more today. They said that every gain the market has made in the 1990's is now gone. I am wondering if this bail out is even going to work?
As long as we pay for it.. it is working!
_____________________________
Ex 19:5 Now therefore, if you will indeed obey My voice
...So the Persians ask that the 300 drop their arms. Leonidas responds; "Persians! Come and get them!"
300 The Movie
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:50:21 PM
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GroupW
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Good question on the long run TED spread average. If I could log into my Bloomberg right now I could tell you. I'm getting some funky computer error at the moment. I'll give you some historical data as soon as I figure out why my computer hates me.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 7:53:07 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: galadriel2
I have no idea of the bailout will work, but I would say that I hope it doesn't. America needs to be weened from her materialism and gluttony. The economy going south is a good way to do it.
God bless,
Galadriel2
How about we pray that everyone learns the lessons we need to WITHOUT all that mucking about in the unemployment line? 
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 8:04:01 PM
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ElmerFishpaw
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
Good question on the long run TED spread average. If I could log into my Bloomberg right now I could tell you. I'm getting some funky computer error at the moment. I'll give you some historical data as soon as I figure out why my computer hates me.
Thank You Group W!! I found the VIX...funny it's like a company's stock quote! I can find the TED on CNBC, and I'll look for AAA measures in the AM. There has to be a site where it can be found. What doesn't make sense in all this is that it seems this is a housing bubble. That housing bubble seems to have tripped up the economy, blocking the flow of credit. People using the inflated equity in the homes as an ATM machine. Economies have recovered from bubbles before...the dotcoms etc, and I'm thinking it was done without all the panic we see now. My guess this is a bit different with speculators...helping...not 100% causing....energy prices to jump and job outsourcing and income going down, all the way to younger folk who've never had to wait in line for gas that may have run out by the time they get to the pump or paid 19% to a bank for signature loan panicking because they've never faced something like this.
Of course I barely got out of High School, so I'm no educated person, but I'm guessing this is what all the fuss is about. I'll check back in the AM....
_____________________________
"Aurora Borealis is Latin for flying saucer headlights"
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 8:04:05 PM
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GroupW
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From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ElmerFishpaw
quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
Hey Elmer.
There would be a couple of things to look at - the TED spread would be right up there at the top of the list. Also the VIX, which is a measure of market volatility.
Right now, though, my favorite indicator is credit default swap spreads. This reflects what financial institutions are charging each other to insure particular credit exposures. Those, however, aren't exchange-traded and the information isn't always widely available - at least not to us mere mortals.
Personally, I'm watching the CMBX index series, particularly the AAA measures. The interesting thing right now is the gap between the spreads at which AAA CMBS bonds trade as derivatives vs. the spreads at which the actual bonds are trading. This gap, or "the basis", is at levels that are astronomically wide, indicating that investors just can't gather the liquidity to purchase the cash instruments and need to take the risk synthetically if they want to buy.
(Today, super-senior CMBS traded around 5% over treasuries. The associated CMBX contract was being sold around 2.65% over treasuries. That's a huge gap. Normally the gap between those two is under 0.25%
That tells me that there just aren't any cash buyers right now.
BT
Thank you GroupW! I know CNBC carries the TED index, I'll look to see if the AAA measures are there. I only found out what a TED spread was a few days ago, as I'm using this current big belch in the economy to educate myself about the financial system, what would the TED be on a average decent but not booming economy day?
I kinda like stocks cheap, bought some more Magellan fund today!
Still can't access it. This is what I can tell you from memory which for your purposes should be close enough. In the long run, the normal range is between 0.10% and 0.50% with a decent long run average probably in the 0.25-0.3% range.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 8:07:23 PM
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ElmerFishpaw
Posts: 141
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
quote:
ORIGINAL: ElmerFishpaw
quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
Hey Elmer.
There would be a couple of things to look at - the TED spread would be right up there at the top of the list. Also the VIX, which is a measure of market volatility.
Right now, though, my favorite indicator is credit default swap spreads. This reflects what financial institutions are charging each other to insure particular credit exposures. Those, however, aren't exchange-traded and the information isn't always widely available - at least not to us mere mortals.
Personally, I'm watching the CMBX index series, particularly the AAA measures. The interesting thing right now is the gap between the spreads at which AAA CMBS bonds trade as derivatives vs. the spreads at which the actual bonds are trading. This gap, or "the basis", is at levels that are astronomically wide, indicating that investors just can't gather the liquidity to purchase the cash instruments and need to take the risk synthetically if they want to buy.
(Today, super-senior CMBS traded around 5% over treasuries. The associated CMBX contract was being sold around 2.65% over treasuries. That's a huge gap. Normally the gap between those two is under 0.25%
That tells me that there just aren't any cash buyers right now.
BT
Thank you GroupW! I know CNBC carries the TED index, I'll look to see if the AAA measures are there. I only found out what a TED spread was a few days ago, as I'm using this current big belch in the economy to educate myself about the financial system, what would the TED be on a average decent but not booming economy day?
I kinda like stocks cheap, bought some more Magellan fund today!
Still can't access it. This is what I can tell you from memory which for your purposes should be close enough. In the long run, the normal range is between 0.10% and 0.50% with a decent long run average probably in the 0.25-0.3% range.
Wow! it's 3.8 or so now! I hope that starts down before long!
_____________________________
"Aurora Borealis is Latin for flying saucer headlights"
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 8:09:40 PM
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galadriel2
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I seriously don't think that America will learn its lessons, GroupW, without some serious trials - but look - the price of gas is going down fast. I know little to nothing about economics but it seems to me that this is a good thing.
God bless abundantly,
Galadriel2
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 8:56:22 PM
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csl7037
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I also hope we can "learn" from this without having to walk through utter disaster - mainly because some of us don't deserve disaster!!
I fear that this will only heighten class warfare issues. I have to admit I'm pretty ticked that if I'd bought a ridiculous house I couldn't afford and committed to a mortgage I could never have paid, I'd be allowed now to "renegotiate" - but since I have a brain and I've been paying my mortgage I'm outta luck and I'm stuck with it. This whole thing makes my head spin.
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/6/2008 9:42:10 PM
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filhodedeus
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I believe the bailout will delay problems, but not fix them. The reality is the US dollar is fiat money with no intrinsic value whatsoever. Because of the legal tender laws and the relative value it holds with respect to other currency, we perceive it's value through these filters.
The economy itself is a debt based economy where the definition of wealth is the movement of money and not the accumulation of money. In order to drive the movement of money, debt has to be created. The US economy, in it's current state, is flawed by design. Thus, the current problems.
Irresponsible lending, based on the idea of increasing debt to increase the illusion of wealth, is one of the main culprits. A bailout will not change this, it will only cover it up.
Just my two pennies folks.
Be blessed
_____________________________
Jeremiah 29:11. Praise God that my righteousness is credited throught faith!!
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 10:10:57 AM
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galadriel2
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Personally, what I think is happening is that God is warning people. He is warning them that He is about to 'shake the heavens and the earth' and so you better 'get your house in order', so to speak. Politicians may boast about how what they have done will help the economy. They may boast how if they are elected they will fix it - but 'He who sits in the heavens laughs, the Lord scoffs at them'. The kind-hearted and gracious GroupW suggested praying that America could learn its lessons without an economic collapse. Of all the teachings in the New Testament on prayer, of all the examples in the New Testament of prayers offered up by Christ and/or His people I don't ever see anyone asking the Lord to stop pouring out His wrath on people who are under His wrath because they hate and reject His beloved Son and His word. It is true that God 'is not willing that any should perish', but most do. I can ask God to bring people out from under His wrath. I can ask Him to 'in wrath remember mercy', but I don't think it is possible to ask God to stop His wrath towards people who refuse to entrust themselves to His Son. It would be like expecting someone to get well without taking the medicine that the doctor prescribed for them....Even so...come Lord Jesus come...Maranatha.
God bless abundantly,
Galadriel2
< Message edited by galadriel2 -- 10/7/2008 10:18:21 AM >
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 10:21:52 AM
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csl7037
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quote:
ORIGINAL: galadriel2
Personally, what I think is happening is that God is warning people. He is warning them that He is about to 'shake the heavens and the earth' and so you better 'get your house in order', so to speak. Politicians may boast about how what they have done will help the economy. They may boast how if they are elected they will fix it - but 'He who sits in the heavens laughs, the Lord scoffs at them'. The kind-hearted and gracious GroupW suggested praying that America could learn its lessons without an economic collapse. Of all the teachings in the New Testament on prayer, of all the examples in the New Testament of prayers offered up by Christ and/or His people I don't ever see anyone asking the Lord to stop pouring out His wrath on people who are under His wrath because they hate and reject His beloved Son and His word. It is true that God 'is not willing that any should perish', but most do. I can ask God to bring people out from under His wrath. I can ask Him to 'in wrath remember mercy', but I don't think it is possible to ask God to stop His wrath towards people who refuse to entrust themselves to His Son. It would be like expecting someone to get well without taking the medicine that the doctor prescribed for them....Even so...come Lord Jesus come...Maranatha.
God bless abundantly,
Galadriel2
I actually see an attitude in the church that is glad the wrath of God is coming to America - to judge the sinful, materialistic evil in our country . . . that's so very dangerous - I harp on this but God's word says "if my people will humble themselves and pray, I'll heal their land" - we've been calling instead for judgement. There's no humility in the church and very little prayer . . . the godless aren't the only ones who will be suffering in the coming days . . . I'm not even sure they're going to be the target of God's wrath, I think it's the Church that God is going to have to punish and it'll be the other way around the country and this world will be (and is) suffering for our sins, materialism, selfishness, and pride.
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 10:35:25 AM
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galadriel2
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Thanks, csl, for the post. The Chronicles verse has come up several times - ironically on the current events thread. I respond similarly everytime - America or any other nation isn't comparable to Israel. We aren't a nation chosen by God that eventually everyone of us will be saved. The Lord didn't give the Law and the Prophets, the covenants and the promises to America.
As far as the church being judged - Peter says in 1 Peter that judgment begins with the house of God. Personally, I don't believe in a pre-trib rapture of the church and I do indeed think that believers are going to get slaughtered (as taught in Matt. ch. 24) prior to Christ's return. But in 2 Thess. ch. 1, Phil. ch. 4, Js. ch. 5 the writings teach the believers to look forward to the return of Christ when genuine and global justice, righteousness, and peace will be all over the earth and the earth will be full of the knowledge of God. Don't you look forward to that? You are asking people to go beyond what God requires of them - to be more righteous than He asks. I feel sorrow at the wrath of God, though, but if the world is going to go on in its rejection of Christ - well - there isn't much that can be done for it. Noah preached for 100 (or was it 120) years about the coming flood. Only his family got saved. Eventually there came a time when they had to all get into the boat. Seems like we're coming up on that time - but maybe not. We don't know the day or the hour.
God bless abundantly,
Galadriel2
< Message edited by galadriel2 -- 10/7/2008 10:54:06 AM >
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 10:49:53 AM
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galadriel2
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Also, csl, I think, and perhaps you will agree with this - I think the Lord is punishing the church now. When I look at the church in America (I can't speak for the church in other countries) and, well I was listening to Alistair Begg on the radio yesterday and he was talking about how in the 60s the battle was about the accuracy of the Bible. And devoted and knowledgable men of the word and 'cloth' (I'm paraphrasing) fought that fight. Now the battle is different - and I think a guy named David Martyn Lloyd-Jones very astutely saw it coming when in about the 1950s he preached on the threat of psychology to the church and how he felt it was one of the most subtle threats yet. See, Pastor Begg said now the fight is not about the accuracy of the word, but about the sufficiency. The word isn't viewed by church leadership as sufficient - we need the help of the Christ-hating, Christ-rejecting psychiatrists and psychologists to teach us about new methods in ministry - small groups, rearranging service orders, hip music with Christian lyrics slapped on them that somehow transforms something that is strictly entertainment into worship, mass marketing techniques (the gospel is a product to be sold and marketed - haven't you heard that one?), the opinions of people who dwell in darkness and the darkness in them to tell people what is wrong with them and how to fix them rather than the word of God - on and on and on and on. And when I look at the church that I go to and all the churches in my area I see God judging her and fighting against her and with the ones that the Lord doesn't appear to be doing that to - it is only a matter of time before it becomes apparent that that is what He is doing or will do. So I agree about God judging the church, but the difference is - and it is huge - the Lord judges His people to purify them. He judges the lost in order to toss them into hell. Christ promises to build His church. All of the elect will be saved and will make it to heaven. Praise God for that.
God bless a lot,
Galadriel2
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 10:55:44 AM
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LoyalGypsy
Posts: 2436
Joined: 4/12/2005
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quote:
ORIGINAL: galadriel2
Thanks, csl, for the post. The Chronicles verse has come up several times - ironically on the current events thread. I respond similarly everytime - America or any other nation isn't comparable to Israel. We aren't a nation chosen by God that eventually everyone of us will be saved. The Lord didn't give the Law and the Prophets, the covenants and the promises to America.
As far as the church being judged - Peter says in 1 Peter that judgment begins with the house of God. Personally, I don't believe in a pre-trib rapture of the church and I do indeed think that believers are going to get slaughtered (as taught in Matt. ch. 24) prior to Christ's return. But in 2 Thess. ch. 1, Phil. ch. 4, Js. ch. 5 the writings teach the believers to look forward to the return of Christ when genuine and global justice, righteousness, and peace will be all over the earth and the earth will be full of the knowledge of God. Don't you look forward to that? You are asking people to go beyond what God requires of them - to be more righteous than He asks. I feel sorrow at the wrath of God, though, but if the world is going to go on in its rejection of Christ - well - there isn't much that can be done it. Noah preached for 100 (or was it 120) years about the coming flood. Only his family got saved. Eventually there came a time when they had to all get into the boat. Seems like we're coming up on that time - but maybe not. We don't know the day or the hour.
God bless abundantly,
Galadriel2
Greetings,
What does any of this have to do with the subject... did you post it in the wrong forum?
But..
quote:
I feel sorrow at the wrath of God, though, but if the world is going to go on in its rejection of Christ - well - there isn't much that can be done about it.
by what is written here... is no wonder why Christ is rejected  ...
quote:
I do indeed think that believers are going to get slaughtered (as taught in Matt. ch. 24)
LG
_____________________________
Ex 19:5 Now therefore, if you will indeed obey My voice
...So the Persians ask that the 300 drop their arms. Leonidas responds; "Persians! Come and get them!"
300 The Movie
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 11:05:56 AM
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galadriel2
Posts: 263
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Thanks, LoyalGypsy, for the post. I think we a talking about if the bailout will work from what God's word says. Is there something we can get from the word that would indicate if the bailout would work? Some of us aren't looking at it from an economic standpoint. I don't know enough about economics to come at it from that angle.
I'm sorry but I totally miss your point about why people reject Christ if they continue to reject Christ which is how I am taking your response 'is no wonder Christ is rejected'. If the implication is that people reject Christ because I am not trying to win them to Him (I mean I'm just guessing what you mean) well it isn't true from what the Bible teaches or about my life. Everyone who is suppose to get saved will get saved whether the church obeys the Lord or no and the Christians on earth just prior to Christ's return will get slaughtered because that's what the word teaches. People are born again because of the will of God, He enables them to believe (Js. 1:18; John 1:13).
God bless you abundantly,
Galadriel2
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 11:06:06 AM
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GroupW
Posts: 2911
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ElmerFishpaw
Wow! it's 3.8 or so now! I hope that starts down before long!
Exactly! Gives you some idea of how rough it is out there right now. I don't think we've EVER seen levels like this.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 11:28:16 AM
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galadriel2
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As a footnote, LoyalGypsy, there isn't anything I can do if someone insists on rejecting Christ, but God will do something if He chooses. That's probably a better way to say it rather than strictly that nothing can be done.
God bless,
Galadriel2
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RE: I wonder if the bail out will work - 10/7/2008 11:54:47 AM
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LoyalGypsy
Posts: 2436
Joined: 4/12/2005
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quote:
ORIGINAL: galadriel2
Thanks, LoyalGypsy, for the post. I think we a talking about if the bailout will work from what God's word says. Is there something we can get from the word that would indicate if the bailout would work? Some of us aren't looking at it from an economic standpoint. I don't know enough about economics to come at it from that angle.
I'm sorry but I totally miss your point about why people reject Christ if they continue to reject Christ which is how I am taking your response 'is no wonder Christ is rejected'. If the implication is that people reject Christ because I am not trying to win them to Him (I mean I'm just guessing what you mean) well it isn't true from what the Bible teaches or about my life. Everyone who is suppose to get saved will get saved whether the church obeys the Lord or no and the Christians on earth just prior to Christ's return will get slaughtered because that's what the word teaches. People are born again because of the will of God, He enables them to believe (Js. 1:18; John 1:13).
God bless you abundantly,
Galadriel2
Greetings,
This is what I see from my limited knowledge also…
We always should take a look at what was planted in the past to see where it led in the future
…It works like this…simple example…
In the 90,s there was a big push for larger vehicles that consume larger amounts of gasoline.
Therefore when this crisis was set up to occur these folks would now be paying double.. plus.. for the product
Meaning that the profits from that push in the consumption of fuel by the larger vehicles in use would double the oil companies profits “in less time”
The tax bail out for example will cost each of us some 37,000.00 per individual, and again double is the keyword…meaning all the tax paid since the 90's will be paid back during the course of the next decade or so …therefore doubling the profits of those involved into the future... its called the American way!
quote:
I'm sorry but I totally miss your point about why people reject Christ
Don’t worry about it, Jesus has nothing to do with the above, that’s in Gods court.
quote:
People are born again because of the will of God, He enables them to believe
I don’t think He enables anyone to believe in being slaughtered, maybe to believers... but not to doers of the word. (the hedge)
LG
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Ex 19:5 Now therefore, if you will indeed obey My voice
...So the Persians ask that the 300 drop their arms. Leonidas responds; "Persians! Come and get them!"
300 The Movie
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